Monte Carlo Power Flow Analysis Of AC islanded Microgrids For The Identification Of Sensitive Buses

The growing significance of load flow analysis in microgrids, driven by the increasing integration of Distributed Generators (DGs), has led to the development of various methodologies to address associated challenges. Traditional power flow methods often encounter difficulties in microgrid scenarios due to the lack of a conventional slack bus or reference bus and the dependency of power on frequency, which is influenced by the droop characteristics of DGs. This study presented a Modified Newton-Raphson method specifically tailored for power flow calculations in AC islanded microgrids. The presented modifications enhance convergence and accuracy in the presence of decentralized control mechanisms. To address load uncertainties often overlooked in existing approaches, a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is employed. Despite its longstanding use, MCS remains a robust tool for probabilistic analysis, providing a comprehensive assessment of system reliability under varying load conditions. The efficacy of the presented method is validated using a 6-bus test system, where load uncertainties are modeled with normal distribution functions. The analysis reveals the range of voltage variations at each bus across different scenarios, enabling the identification of voltage-sensitive buses. This insight is crucial for optimizing voltage regulation strategies and improving microgrid reliability. A comparison with recent approaches shows the adequate performance of the presented method in terms of exactness and robustness.