China’s Net-Zero Emissions Future: Energy Structure Forecast Based on Elasticity Coefficient Regression Analysis

Facing increasingly deteriorating ecological environments and frequent extreme natural disasters, to curb the trend of global warming, China has announced the goal to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The energy system, as the core of achieving the carbon neutrality goal, also requires the transition to green and low-carbon development. To predict China’s future energy structure, this paper first proposes an elasticity coefficient regression forecasting method. Moreover, using this method, the trends in consumption changes of different energy types in China from 2020 to 2060 are predicted. Based on the energy structure forecast, this paper then illustrates China’s energy flow diagram in 2060, demonstrating the feasibility of achieving the carbon neutrality goal and China’s net-zero emissions future by 2060. Finally, pathways for the green and low-carbon transition of the energy system are provided. It requires exercising nationwide planning and making joint efforts of different sectors in various aspects and links from now on.