Scenario Generation Method for Provincial Summer Load Based on Load Decomposition

The provincial summer load scenario is of significance for the adequacy assessment and the planning of the power resource. In this regard, a summer load scenario generation method based on the load decomposition idea is proposed. Firstly, the power consumption curve is constructed by considering the impact of distributed photovoltaic (PV) power on the original grid load. The power consumption curve is decomposed into two components, namely the basic load and the temperature-related load. Secondly, the basic load is a partial load component determined by the law of social production development. The improved multivariate grey system is used to establish the correlation model between key indicators of social development and basic load, which is used to realize the future scenario of basic load. Then, the temperature-related load is a load component affected by meteorological factors. And the TCN-Transformer model that considering the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature factors and classification of summer weather processes is established to realize the scenario generation of temperature-related load. Finally, given the social development indicators, summer meteorological data and distributed PV power installed capacity of the planning target year, the above model can be used to generate summer load scenario. And the load data of the provincial power grid are analyzed as an example to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.