Research on Changes in Power System under the Coupling of Electricity-Carbon-Green Certificate Market

The proposal of the "dual carbon" goal has made low carbonization and clean energy essential requirements for the advancement of China's power industry. The concurrent operation of the power market, carbon market, and green certificate market presents challenges to coordinating and integrating these markets, influencing their future development trajectories. In order to examine the interaction mechanisms and future trends of the electricity market, carbon market, and green certificate market, this study initially assesses the advantages of coupling these three markets. This passage describes the establishment of a system dynamics analysis model for the power market, carbon market, and green certificate market, followed by a case study. The findings reveal a mutually restrictive relationship among these markets. The internalization of external costs of carbon emissions and the green certificate market impacts the clearing price of the power market. In the future, the installed capacity and income of thermal power units will gradually decrease, while new energy will see a significant increase in both installed capacity and income. The coupling study of these three markets holds significant practical implications for optimizing the power structure, promoting the development of the new energy market, and urging policymakers to focus on the coordinated development of these markets.