Determinants of Livelihood Choices in Response to Climate Variability among the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Communities in Northern Kenya

Climate variability causes pulsed livestock and crop production, and in severe cases, production failure. It is, thus, an important predictor of household livelihood choice in pastoral and agro-pastoral communities that rely on rain-fed pastures and crops. The objective of this study was to investigate the factors that influence household livelihood choices and determine the repercussions that will help northern Kenya’s pastoral and agro-pastoral production and adaptation policies. The historical self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was calculated every month using the 40-year monthly mean precipitation, monthly average temperature, and climatological soil available water storage capacity. The hydrological drought severity index analysis showed that Sololo and Maikona experienced the most severe floods in the years 2000, and 2020, with huge indexes of around +370, and +220, respectively. A multinomial logistic model was used to analyze primary data collected from 396 randomly selected pastoral and agro-pastoral households in four wards of Marsabit County and relate the outcome to climate variability to deduce the determinants of livelihood choices in response to climate variability among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Northern Kenya in a location-specific manner. Results show the likelihood of a household selecting crop farming (p< 0.05) and other non-farming occupations (p< 0.01), but positively associated with the likelihood of a household choosing livestock keeping. Education strongly (p< 0.05) predicted a household’s preference for paid jobs and crop farming over animal rearing. This shows that the educated household heads are more likely to prefer formal jobs and crop farming to animal rearing. Adopting alternative livelihood sources, such as raising adopted livestock species (camel, goats) and drought-tolerant crop species, is often influenced by respondents’ socioeconomic characteristics. To attain a sustainable livelihood option in Marsabit County, policies that strengthen these features must be drawn and executed.