The dynamics of cohort effect in politics

This paper investigates the dynamic ramifications of cohort effects on politics. We propose a theoretical framework that encompasses a dynamic social-learning model of politics, where cohort effects are endogenously derived from preceding generations’ political decisions. This process underscores the role of political experiences in shaping the beliefs of younger cohorts, which subsequently influence policy decisions as these individuals mature. We demonstrate how these dynamic intergenerational linkages lead to cyclical patterns of polarised and cohesive cohorts. In the proposed model, cohorts emerging during periods of political consensus display less familiarity with optimal policies, resulting, due to random external shocks, in high variance of public opinions. Conversely, cohorts maturing amidst polarisation and political turnover demonstrate greater knowledge about optimal policies, leading to more cohesive public opinions. Notably, our model suggests that transitory shocks can exert persistent influence on politics due to these dynamic linkages. We also present some suggestive evidence, using ANES surveys, showing that different cohorts’ opinions exhibit distinct levels of variance. • We propose a new theoretical framework that encompasses a dynamic social-learning model of politics, where cohort effects are endogenously derived from preceding generations’ political decisions. • We highlight the role of political experiences in shaping the beliefs of younger cohorts, which subsequently influence policy decisions as these individuals mature. • We demonstrate how these dynamic intergenerational linkages lead to cyclical patterns of polarised and cohesive cohorts, as well as a cyclical pattern of parties’ behaviour, oscillating between polarisation and consensus. • We show how the phases of the cycles depend on demography parameters, and how transitory shocks can exert persistent influence on politics due to these dynamic linkages. • We also present some suggestive evidence, using ANES surveys, showing that different cohorts’ opinions exhibit different levels of variance, consistent with our theoretical framework.