What's my age again? An age-period-cohort analysis of generalised trust in Africa

Most African countries are experiencing a ‘youth bulge’—a large proportion of young people in their populations. What effect might this have on generalised trust? Using a cross-classified random effects model (CCREM) on Afrobarometer data, we show that (1) higher age is correlated with higher generalised trust in Africa, and (2) this is at least partly the result of the ageing process itself and not merely due to period or cohort effects. Both of these findings are consistent with previous work on trust in the US and Europe. This implies that the African youth bulge has pushed down generalised trust as the proportion of low-trust young people in the population has steadily increased. This supports the ‘instability thesis’ of youth bulges and could threaten the other dividends which they may generate. We conclude by presenting some suggestions for ameliorating this decline.