Is Forestation Still Good Climate Policy Despite Increasing Forest Fires?

Despite the global increase in forest fires in recent years, forestation—the planting of trees in new areas (afforestation) and previously deforested areas (reforestation)—remains a major and relatively low-cost approach for sequestering carbon dioxide. High-resolution satellite data show that the annual incidence of tree death and corresponding carbon dioxide release from stand-replacement forest fires remains low. The analysis applies this incidence as a “hazard rate” in the actuarial sense and arrives at cumulative probabilities of the burning of newly planted trees over time. Even with projected increases in response to global warming, this hazard rate would not reach levels that would substantially negate sequestration gains from forestation. Estimates based on past US experience further suggest that health, property, and other damages from forestation’s addition of potential forest area fuel to burn would be much smaller than the benefit from the additional carbon sequestration resulting from the forestation.