Preserving an emblematic oak: Threats to the conservation of Quercus insignis (Fagaceae) due to climate change

• Oaks associated with cloud forests face significant conservation threats due to habitat loss and climate change. • The loss of suitable habitats due to climate change, coupled with the low connectivity of landscapes, exacerbates the extinction risk for Quercus species • Natural protected areas encompass only a small fraction of the climatic niche suitable for Quercus insignis. • Conservation of suitable areas with stable climates and high connectivity is crucial for ensuring the preservation of future climate refuges for Quercus insignis. Oaks associated with cloud forests are currently facing a critical challenge for survival. Populations of Quercus insignis that are restricted to cloud forests have recently decreased drastically due to habitat loss. In this study, we analyzed the impacts of expected climate changes on the distribution of suitable areas and the functional connectivity of Q. insignis . We used ecological niche models (ENM) to quantify the amounts of habitats that were lost, remained stable or were gained under two climate change scenarios that were defined by the representative concentration pathway (SSP), specifically the moderate (SSP245) and drastic (SSP585) scenarios. In addition, we estimated the functional landscape connectivity using a circuit theory approach. We also evaluated the importance of officially decreed natural protected areas in the conservation of suitable habitats and explored the potential connectivity among them. Our results indicate that the present potential distribution area for Q. insignis is ∼163 145 km 2 , with only 26 % (∼42 693 km 2 ) of the environmentally suitable area under protection. Climate change will likely reduce the current distribution of Q. insignis by ∼43–63 %, and a moderate percentage (∼37 %-57 %) of the suitable area will remain climatically stable, which is mainly concentrated in the Central American ecoregions. We considered the vulnerability to climate change effects, extent of connectivity and degree of protection to identify priority regions for the conservation of Q. insignis . Owing to potential threats from climate change, conservation practices and regional-based strategies are needed to guarantee the long-term preservation of Q. insignis under the predicted novel climates. One such strategy is to conserve several areas of variable sizes that are functionally connected and maintain climate stability.