Evaluation of energy scenarios for Malaysia for energy transition in meeting net-zero target 2050

The renewable energy transition has seen an increased momentum globally in accordance with the Paris Agreement towards achieving the net-zero target by 2050. With Malaysia still heavily relying on fossils for its electricity generation, proper energy planning will be required to analyse various pathways of energy transition towards the future. This can be conducted through bottom-up national energy system modelling methodologies, such as in low-emission analysis platform (LEAP). With limited literature found in national-scale modelling of Malaysia’s energy transition, this paper modelled energy transition scenarios of Malaysia through long-term modelling approaches using LEAP based on the IRENA and NETR. These scenarios were evaluated in a comparative study according to the criterion of electrical generation, carbon dioxide emissions, carbon tax costs, and investment costs. Based on the criterion assessed, the findings indicated that the RE100S was the best scenario primarily due to its comparatively low-carbon emission when accounting for the entire lifecycle assessment of 23.5 MMT by 2050 and its respective carbon tax cost of 0.8 billion USD. This research provides quantifiable findings that can be valuable to policymakers and researchers in making strategic renewable energy development plans applied to Malaysia and other developing nations.