Evaluation of effectiveness and forecasting of enterprise performance indicators in the field of river and sea cargo transportation based on dynamic analysis methods

This article calculates key performance indicators of the company Volgotrans LLC’s dynamic activity. Trends are identified, and models for estimating forecast values are described. A comparative analysis of forecasting results using Holt’s and Brown’s adaptive models is conducted. Estimates of forecast levels for cargo turnover and revenue are obtained. The application of mathematical tools for dynamic analysis allows for solving forecasting problems in the river and sea freight industry. Calculated values of growth rates, absolute increments (both chain and base), and average values of indicators ensure high-quality use of dynamic forecasting models. The use of the moving average method creates conditions for identifying trends. A comparative analysis of the results using trend models and the adaptive forecasting methodology of Holt and Brown improves the accuracy of the forecast for the indicators under study. Dynamic analysis of indicators contributes to the development of the company’s development strategy, the analysis of advantageous cooperation options, and the development of higher-quality routes.