FORECASTING AND DESIGNING IN SECURITY – PRACTICAL ASPECTS (PART II)

<ns3:p>The article complements the theoretical aspects of forecasting and designing in security, which waspublished in “Zeszyty Naukowe SGSP” (“Scientific Reports of the Fire University”) no. 92(2)/2024.The main aim of the second part of the article was to demonstrate the usefulness of designing asa research procedure complementary to forecasting in the process of formulating full-scale securitypolicy objectives in a turbulent state security environment. The optimum level of state technologicalsecurity in relation to the megatrend such as universal access to modern technology was identified asthe subject of the study. The first part of the study was a state strategic analysis - identifying theunderlying categories such as threats and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses, extrapolating,reducing them, and grouping for the identification of national interests. Both qualitative (expertmethod) and quantitative (cluster analysis - k-means algorithm) methods were used for this purpose.The results obtained in the analysis process were then used in the second part of the study - thepreviously identified categories constituted a reference to the vision of the state and the projectedconditions of its functioning using the method of idealization and gradual concretization. As a result,it has been possible to modify the wording of the security policy objective to its full-scale form –adequately to the current needs of the state and the complex and dynamic changes in its securityenvironment.</ns3:p>