Current trends and factors of the dynamics of pollutant emissions from motor transport in Moscow

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors governing the dynamics of motor vehicles emissions into the atmosphere of Moscow during 2014–2023. It has been found that in the 2000s, against the background of increased motorization, pollution was reduced by improving the quality of the vehicle fleet and fuel. In the 2010s, changes in the density and topology of the transport network, and actively developing public transport as a result of the effective urban transport policy, became the main factors governing the dynamics of emissions and their territorial proportions. Before the period under study, the planning structure of the city dictated low network connectivity, excessive mileage and increased pollution in certain areas of the city under the rapidly changing vehicle fleet of the capital. The study showed that in recent years, on the contrary, the number of cars and the structure of the fleet have become a conservative factor, and the city’s development strategies have focused on the construction and reconstruction of roads, thus strengthening the network connectivity. The calculation of emissions from individual sections of the road network in the Ochakovo-Matveevskoye municipal area based on data on the intensity and structure of traffic flows for the 2014–2023 period showed that emissions became lower only for light trucks with gasoline and heavy trucks with diesel. The main trend in recent years was an increasing uniformity of pollution from motor vehicles. New housing construction programs and large-scale projects for the transformation of Moscow’s districts lead to the increasing connectivity of the city and at the same time the equalizing density of traffic pollution. The balance of these factors changes over time (the inherited factors were the main ones at the beginning of the post-Soviet period, while in recent years the positive transformation factors have become predominant) and in space (industrial zones have been preserved only on the periphery of the city, and railway stations are being moved there; the changing network topology has not only increased connectivity, but also created a vacuum effect in the center)