Cohort change in loneliness through the lens of the second demographic transition

Abstract The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) theory precipitates two primary, interrelated shifts: (1) family-related changes resulting in smaller families, and (2) an ideational change that prioritizes individualism. These cohort-driven transformations are posited to produce two opposing trends in loneliness across generations. On the one hand, if loneliness is influenced by the quantity of social relationships, the reduction in family size is likely to lead to an increase in loneliness across cohorts. Conversely, if loneliness is shaped by subjective feelings of social isolation, the growing emphasis on individualization may result in a decrease in loneliness across generations. This study investigates whether self-reported loneliness varies across cohorts and, if so, in which direction. Utilizing data from the Israeli Social Survey (2002-2020) and analyzing a sample of 86,675 individuals aged 20 and above from the Jewish population in Israel, the study compares cohort changes in loneliness among Haredi and non-Haredi—two groups that occupy different positions along the demographic transition continuum. The results reveal a significant negative cohort effect exclusively among non-Haredi Jews, a group influenced by the SDT. This evidence might suggest that the negative impact of increased individualism on loneliness outweighs the positive effect of reduced family size across generations.