Scots Pine at Its Southern Range in Siberia: A Combined Drought and Fire Influence on Tree Vigor, Growth, and Regeneration

Climate models have predicted changes in woody plant growth, vitality, and species distribution. Those changes are expected mainly within the boundaries of species ranges. We studied the influence of changing hydrothermal and burning-rate regimes on relict pine stands at the southern edge of the Pinus sylvestris range in Siberia. We hypothesize that (1) warming has stimulated pine growth under conditions of sufficient moisture supply, and (2) increased burning rate has threatened forest viability. We found that the increase in air temperature, combined with the decrease in soil and air drought, stimulated tree growth. Since the “warming restart” around 2000, the growth index (GI) of pines has exceeded its historical value by 1.4 times. The GI strongly correlates with the GPP and NPP of pine stands (r = 0.82). Despite the increased fire rate, the GPP/NPP and EVI index of both pine stands and surrounding bush–steppes are increasing, i.e., the pine habitat is “greening” since the warming restart. These results support the prediction (by climatic scenarios SSP4.5, SSP7.0, and SSP8.5) of improvement in tree habitat in the Siberian South. Meanwhile, warming has led to a reduction in the fire-return interval (up to 3–5 y). Although the post-fire density of seedlings on burns (ca. 10,000 per ha) is potentially sufficient for pine forest recovery, repeated surface fires have eliminated the majority of the undergrowth and afforestation. In a changing climate, the preservation of relict pine forests depends on a combination of moisture supply, burning rate, and fire suppression.