Prediction of the Morphological Characteristics of Asymmetric Thaw Plate of Qinghai–Tibet Highway Using Remote Sensing and Large-Scale Geological Survey Data

The sunny–shady slope effect (SSSE) disrupts the thermal balance of permafrost subgrades, resulting in asymmetric thaw plates that lead to structural deformations such as longitudinal cracking and slope instability along the Qinghai–Tibet Highway (QTH). This study proposes three morphological indicators—road shoulder thawing depth difference (RSTDD), offset distance (OD), and active layer thickness difference (ALTD)—to quantitatively characterize the asymmetry of thaw plates. Through integrating remote sensing data and large-scale geological survey results with an earth–atmosphere coupled numerical model and a random forest (RF) prediction framework, we assessed the spatial distribution of thaw asymmetry along the permafrost section of the QTH. The results indicate the following: (1) The ALTD values are overall very small and almost unaffected by the SSSE. The RSTDD increases with mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) before stabilizing, while the OD shows no significant response to the MAGT. The RSTDD and OD ranges are 0–3.38 m and 0–8.65 m, respectively, and they are greatly affected by the SSSE. (2) The RSTDD and OD show obvious spatial differences in different geographical regions of the QTH. An RSTDD greater than 2 m is concentrated in the Xidatan Faulted Basin and Chumar River High Plain. An OD greater than 3 m is mainly distributed from the Chumar River High Plain to the Tongtian River Basin. (4) The RSTDD and OD are most affected by subgrade orientation with importance values of 49.84% and 51.80%, respectively. The importance of the effect of mean average ground temperature (MAGT) on the active layer thickness is 80.58%.