Research on Robust Adaptive Model Predictive Control Based on Vehicle State Uncertainty

To address the performance degradation in model predictive control (MPC) under vehicle state uncertainties caused by external disturbances (e.g., crosswinds and tire cornering stiffness variations) and rigid constraint conflicts, we propose a robust MPC framework with adaptive weight adjustment and dynamic constraint relaxation. Traditional MPC methods often suffer from infeasibility or deteriorated tracking accuracies when handling model mismatches and disturbances. To overcome these limitations, three key innovations are introduced: a three-degree-of-freedom vehicle dynamic model integrated with recursive least squares-based online estimation of tire slip stiffness for real-time lateral force compensation; an adaptive weight adjustment mechanism that dynamically balances control energy consumption and tracking accuracy by tuning cost function weights based on real-time state errors; and a dynamic constraint relaxation strategy using slack variables with variable penalty terms to resolve infeasibility while suppressing excessive constraint violations. The proposed method is validated via ROS (noetic)–MATLAB2023 co-simulations under crosswind disturbances (0–3 m/s) and varying road conditions. The results show that the improved algorithm achieves a 13% faster response time (5.2 s vs. 6 s control cycles), a 15% higher minimum speed during cornering (2.98 m/s vs. 2.51 m/s), a 32% narrower lateral velocity fluctuation range ([−0.11, 0.22] m/s vs. [−0.19, 0.22] m/s), and reduced yaw rate oscillations ([−1.8, 2.8] rad/s vs. [−2.8, 2.5] rad/s) compared with a traditional fixed-weight MPC algorithm. These improvements lead to significant enhancements in trajectory tracking accuracy, dynamic response, and disturbance rejection, ensuring both safety and efficiency in autonomous vehicle control under complex uncertainties. The framework provides a practical solution for real-time applications in intelligent transportation systems.