Lifetime functions and half-lives of residential building structures in Japan: A comparative study of wooden, non-wooden, and concrete block houses

Understanding the lifetime of buildings is crucial for estimating the environmental impacts associated with construction activity. While building lifetimes vary depending on their use, no study has yet addressed the lifetime of buildings for each use across all regions of Japan. Therefore, this study focuses on residential buildings and identifies the lifetime functions and half-lives of three types of structures in Japan: wooden, non-wooden, and concrete block. The logistic distribution was found to be suitable for wooden residential buildings, with half-lives of 40 years (1974), 29 years (1975–1996), and 75 years (1997–2021). For non-wooden residential buildings, the log-normal distribution was appropriate, with half-lives of 50 years (1974), 50 years (1975–1996), and 59 years (1997–2021). The log-normal distribution was also suitable for concrete-block houses, with a half-life of 49 years (1974–2021). The half-lives of wooden and non-wooden houses increased between 1974 and 2021, while the half-life of concrete block residential buildings remained constant. As an application of the suitable lifetime functions, the amount of wood carbon storage in Japanese residential buildings was estimated to be 175 million t-C in 2021, which is equal to 10% of the amount of carbon storage in Japan’s forest biomass. This verification of the half-life and lifetime functions for specific building types provides a more detailed understanding of stock and flow, enabling more accurate future predictions. • We estimated optimal lifetime functions and half-lives at a national scale • Logistic distribution was the suitable lifetime function for wooden houses • Log-normal distribution the suitable lifetime function for both non-wooden and CB • The half-lives of wooden and non-wooden houses increased between 1974 and 2021 • Wood carbon storage amount in Japanese houses was 175 million t-C in 2021