Spatio-Temporal Paths and Influencing Factors of Residential Mobility in Guangzhou: A Micro-Level Perspective of Newly Employed College Graduates

Residential mobility within cities reflects the spatio-temporal patterns of individual or household relocation behaviors and serves as an effective tool for interpreting urban socio-spatial differentiation from a micro-level perspective. Newly employed college graduates (NECGs) have become the second-largest migrating population in China. This study selects Guangzhou, a megacity, as the study area and utilizes data from the “Guangzhou New Citizens’ Residential Mobility Survey” conducted in 2023. It applies spatio-temporal systems and the spatio-temporal path method based on time geography to explore the residential mobility trajectories of NECGs in Guangzhou. In addition, the study uses a logistic regression model to explore the influencing factors. The findings indicate that NECGs frequently move across districts, showing no significant patterns of concentration or dispersion. However, residential location choices vary considerably across educational levels and household registration natures (Hukou), and as the duration of residence in Guangzhou increases, the probability of residential mobility among NECGs across all educational levels shows a declining trend. Specifically, marital status (life course attributes), housing prices and medical facilities (housing attributes), and job type (socioeconomic attributes) emerge as critical factors influencing residential mobility. By providing a foundation for urban planning policies, this study aims to support the settlement and well-being of NECGs while promoting high-quality urban development in Guangzhou.