Optimizing Crop Structure to Alleviate Groundwater Pressure Under Climate Change—A Case Study of the North China Plain

Agricultural production faces significant uncertainty due to climate change, complicating groundwater issues in the North China Plain. This study introduces the groundwater footprint concept to alleviate groundwater pressure through an optimized crop structure amid climate change. By forecasting groundwater recharge, crop water demand, and food demand, a multi-objective optimization model based on groundwater footprint constraints is developed. This thesis analyzes the groundwater pressure from irrigation with historical and optimized crop structures. The findings indicate that under the historical crop structure, irrigation during dry years causes severe stress on the groundwater system as a whole, and extreme stress on 40.87% of the area; during normal years, it results in severe stress overall and extreme stress on 39.02% of the area. With the optimized crop structure, irrigation during dry years only mildly stresses the groundwater system, reducing groundwater consumption by 66.04%; during normal years, it causes light stress, reducing consumption by 50.79%. Optimizing agricultural production’s crop types and spatial layout aids in addressing climate change challenges and alleviating groundwater pressure in the North China Plain.