Opposite effects of temperature and precipitation on vegetation growth onset in Africa

• Precipitation and temperature both affected SOS temporal changes in Africa. • More precipitation advanced SOS, while warmer temperature delayed SOS. • Precipitation caused advances of SOS were concealed by temperature's delaying effect. • Sensitivity of SOS to temperature and precipitation varies across climate gradients. Understanding the responses of vegetation phenology to climate change is of great importance in predicting land-atmosphere carbon and water exchange. Previous studies have revealed a delayed start of the growing season (SOS) in most African regions over the past three decades, contrasting with the advancing trend observed in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the climatic drivers of this SOS delay in Africa remain unclear. We investigated the responses of SOS to pre-season precipitation ( P p s ) and temperature ( T p s ) across Africa, and quantified the sensitivity of SOS to temporal variations in P p s and T p s from 1982 to 2022. The results reveal that temporal variations of SOS were strongly correlated with both P p s and T p s , but with divergent effects in Africa. Specifically, SOS was negatively correlated with P p s , while positively correlated with T p s . An increase in P p s of 10 mm corresponded to an average advancement of SOS by 1.5 days (i.e., -0.15 days/mm), while a 1 °C warming in T p s led to a delay of 4.7 days (i.e., 4.7 days/°C) in SOS for Africa. Under climate change, T p s over Africa significantly increased 0.03 °C/yr, while P p s slightly increased 0.10 mm/yr. The delay induced by the increasing T p s was more pronounced than the advance induced by the increasing P p s , leading to widespread SOS delays across Africa. Furthermore, we observed that SOS was more sensitive to P p s in drier areas (relatively lower annual precipitation areas), while higher sensitivity to T p s in wetter areas (relatively higher annual precipitation areas). Similarly, along the gradients of spatial annual temperature, higher temperature sensitivity was found in lower annual temperature areas. Our study underscores the intricate responses of SOS to climate variables in Africa, where varying local climate conditions contribute to distinct sensitivities, emphasizing the need for a more detailed investigation of the roles of P p s and T p s in African phenology dynamics.

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Publication Details

Journal
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Published
2025-05-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110604
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Remote Sensing in Agriculture
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
1.72

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article

Opposite effects of temperature and precipitation on vegetation growth onset in Africa

Christiaan van der Tol, Siqi Shi, Peiqi Yang, Anton Vrieling
1 citations
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Remote Sensing in Agriculture
1.72
article

Opposite effects of temperature and precipitation on vegetation growth onset in Africa

Christiaan van der Tol, Siqi Shi, Peiqi Yang, Anton Vrieling
article en
1 citations

Abstract

• Precipitation and temperature both affected SOS temporal changes in Africa. • More precipitation advanced SOS, while warmer temperature delayed SOS. • Precipitation caused advances of SOS were concealed by temperature's delaying effect. • Sensitivity of SOS to temperature and precipitation varies across climate gradients. Understanding the responses of vegetation phenology to climate change is of great importance in predicting land-atmosphere carbon and water exchange. Previous studies have revealed a delayed start of the growing season (SOS) in most African regions over the past three decades, contrasting with the advancing trend observed in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the climatic drivers of this SOS delay in Africa remain unclear. We investigated the responses of SOS to pre-season precipitation ( P p s ) and temperature ( T p s ) across Africa, and quantified the sensitivity of SOS to temporal variations in P p s and T p s from 1982 to 2022. The results reveal that temporal variations of SOS were strongly correlated with both P p s and T p s , but with divergent effects in Africa. Specifically, SOS was negatively correlated with P p s , while positively correlated with T p s . An increase in P p s of 10 mm corresponded to an average advancement of SOS by 1.5 days (i.e., -0.15 days/mm), while a 1 °C warming in T p s led to a delay of 4.7 days (i.e., 4.7 days/°C) in SOS for Africa. Under climate change, T p s over Africa significantly increased 0.03 °C/yr, while P p s slightly increased 0.10 mm/yr. The delay induced by the increasing T p s was more pronounced than the advance induced by the increasing P p s , leading to widespread SOS delays across Africa. Furthermore, we observed that SOS was more sensitive to P p s in drier areas (relatively lower annual precipitation areas), while higher sensitivity to T p s in wetter areas (relatively higher annual precipitation areas). Similarly, along the gradients of spatial annual temperature, higher temperature sensitivity was found in lower annual temperature areas. Our study underscores the intricate responses of SOS to climate variables in Africa, where varying local climate conditions contribute to distinct sensitivities, emphasizing the need for a more detailed investigation of the roles of P p s and T p s in African phenology dynamics.

Agricultural and Forest MeteorologyVol. 371
Nanjing Normal University (CN), Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application (CN), University of Twente (NL)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, China Scholarship Council
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 17%
Remote Sensing in Agriculture
1.72
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