Modelos predictivos de recaídas y de recuperación en jóvenes con consumo riesgoso de alcohol

Risky alcohol consumption is the precursor of dependence. As relapses and recovery influence the success and cost of treatments, the objective of this work is to construct two predictive models—one for relapses and one for recovery—for individuals who engage in risky alcohol consumption. For this purpose, a cross-sectional study was conducted on 646 individuals of medium socioeconomic status, and the following instruments were applied: the AUDIT, Zung scales, a questionnaire of beliefs about alcohol consumption, two questionnaires that predict relapse and recovery, and the family APGAR. From the initial sample, 250 people (with a 64% female demographic, aged between 18 and 35) were identified as having risky alcohol consumption. A structural equations model concluded that the most influential variables for relapse were favorable beliefs about alcohol consumption, early onset, consumer friends, and academic, family, and social issues; whereas those that favored recovery were: good family functioning and late age of onset. It is recommended to expand the sample to be more heterogeneous to generalize the proposed models and compare individuals with and without risky alcohol consumption.