Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecological plantations of Camellia sinensis var. assamica: Synergistic effects of climate change and policy constraints in Yunnan, China

Camellia sinensis var. assamica ( C. assamica ) is a variety widely used in commercial tea production across Yunnan Province, China. However, research on the potential distribution of over-a-century-old ecological tea plantations of C. assamica remains limited. Exploring this distribution can offer novel insights for the high-quality and sustainable development of the local tea industry. In this study, an ENMeval-optimized MaxEnt model was employed, incorporating policy and legal constraints to determine the potential distribution of C. assamica ecological tea plantations in Yunnan by integrating both natural and human factors. The Jackknife method was utilized to identify key environmental drivers. Finally, potential spatial changes in ecological tea plantations under climate change scenarios were quantified, revealing future distribution trends. The results reveal: (1) The potential distribution of ecological tea plantations is located in the western, southwestern, and southern parts of Yunnan, concentrated in the southwest. Over time, the overall potential distribution zone shifts northward. (2) Climate change has significantly impacted the distribution of ecological tea plantations. With climate change, the suitability levels of the region fluctuate across different periods. (3) Temperature seasonality (Bio4) and mean diurnal air temperature range (Bio2) were identified as the most important factors influencing the distribution of ecological tea plantations for C. assamica. The fluctuations of these two climatic factors have had a significant impact on the stability of ecological tea plantations. The results of this study provide new insights into the construction of ecological tea plantations and the sustainable development of local tea estates. • An optimized MaxEnt model was used to simulate the environmentally suitable zones. • The suitable zones influenced by natural and human factors were identified. • BIO4 and BIO2 are the most critical factors affecting the potential distribution. • Under climate change, the suitability levels of the region fluctuate significantly. • Over time, the overall suitability zones shift northward.