Future Trends in CO2 Emissions and Energy Consumption: Insights from InceptionTime Modeling

In the modern world, energy generation and consumption are pivotal components of national infrastructure, directly influencing economic stability, environmental sustainability, and public welfare. The research leverages the InceptionTime model, known for its effectiveness in time series classification, to provide accurate and robust predictions. Data for this study is sourced from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), encompassing detailed records of energy production and consumption across various sources such as natural gas, renewables, nuclear power, and fossil fuels. To prepare the data for modeling, this paper implemented detrending techniques using linear regression to remove long-term trends, ensuring that the model captures short-term variability and seasonal patterns accurately. This study conducted extensive Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) to uncover patterns, trends, and relationships within the data. The InceptionTime model was trained on sequences of 12 months, with cross-validation employed to enhance model robustness and prevent overfitting. The results indicate that the model effectively captures the underlying dynamics of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions and energy metrics, providing reliable forecasts. The forecasts reveal a continued downward trend in CO2 emissions, suggesting the effectiveness of current emission reduction policies and clean energy investments. Conversely, total energy consumption is projected to rise, underscoring the need for strategic planning to ensure a sustainable energy supply. Total energy production shows a slight downward trend, highlighting the potential stabilization or reduction in fossil fuel-based energy production.