Mathematical Analysis of Cerebral Palsy Dynamics: Exploring Risk Factors and Treatment Interventions in Nigeria

Cerebral palsy (CP) remains a significant public health challenge in Nigeria, with limited maternal healthcare, birth complications, and neonatal infections contributing to its high prevalence. This study develops a mathematical model to analyze the dynamics of CP progression, the impact of risk factors, and the effectiveness of treatment interventions. Sensitivity analysis using Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) identifies risk factor exposure and direct CP onset as key drivers of CP cases, reinforcing the need for early healthcare interventions. The results reveal that preventive healthcare such as improved prenatal care, neonatal monitoring, and skilled birth attendance is the most cost-effective strategy for reducing CP incidence. While treatment and rehabilitation enhance quality of life, they do not significantly lower CP prevalence, and the financial burden of long-term CP management remains overwhelming for many families. The study highlights the need for policy-driven healthcare reforms in Nigeria, including stronger maternal and child health programs, expanded CP rehabilitation services, and financial support through Nigeria’s National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS). This research provides valuable insights for healthcare practitioners and policymakers, emphasizing the importance of prevention, early intervention, and sustainable healthcare policies to reduce CP burden in Nigeria.