Study of Future Land Use Prediction Based on Machine Learning and Markov Chain

The urbanization process has triggered significant changes in land use patterns. Therefore, scientific simulation and accurate prediction of land use are of great significance for the sustainable development of global human society. The Yangtze River Delta region, as one of the most active, open, and innovative regions in China's economic development, occupies an important position in the global economy, culture, and land resource utilization, and is an important economic growth pole in China. This study utilized geographic information systems to conduct an in-depth analysis of the dynamic changes in land use in the Yangtze River Delta region over the past decade. Ten socio-economic driving factors and ten natural environmental driving factors were selected, and the optimized land expansion analysis strategy (LEAS) model and Markov chain cellular automata based on multiple random seeds (CARS) model were comprehensively applied to carry out large-scale computational simulations to predict the land use status in the Yangtze River Delta region in 2031. The research has drawn the following conclusions: (1) In the next decade, the construction land area in the Yangtze River Delta region is expected to continue to show an increasing trend, but the driving force of land use change will weaken, and the frequency of conversion between land use types will also decrease accordingly; (2) The speed of urban expansion will gradually slow down, especially in major cities in the Yangtze River Delta region, and this trend will be more pronounced; (3) The arable land resources will be effectively protected, and their quantity is expected to remain stable; (4) Natural resources such as forests, grasslands, and water bodies will also be better protected, and their decreasing trend will significantly slow down compared to the past, and may even expand to a certain extent in some areas.