Prediction and Data Analysis of Decommissioned Quantity of New Energy Vehicle Traction Batteries through Weibull Model

Accurate prediction of the decommissioned quantity and regional distribution of new energy vehicle (NEV) traction batteries is important for supporting decision-making by regulating authorities and for optimizing the development layout of battery recycling industry. This study estimated the impact of factors such as the original design service life, life decay rate, and technological progress of traction battery on the model results. Based on the Weibull model and over 22 million data samples of NEVs, 26 probability distribution sub-models of NEVs' service life with different battery materials, vehicle uses, production years were set up. The mean variance of the fitting functions of these models reaches 0.95, indicating high prediction accuracy. On this basis, the market supply model A was used to estimate the decommissioning situation of NEV traction batteries in China from 2024 to 2035. Additionally, the study conducts a detailed analysis of the types of decommissioned batteries' materials, the types of vehicles from which these batteries originate (including drive modes and usage scenarios), and their regional distribution.