The U.S.-China Military Balance in Space

Abstract How will the U.S. military's growing use of space to support its operations and the growing counterspace capabilities available to its rivals shape the balance of power? This article develops a framework to assess the U.S.-China military balance in space and applies that framework to a Taiwan scenario. It evaluates trends in both the U.S. military's dependence on space to defend Taiwan and the resilience of U.S. satellite constellations against a Chinese counterspace campaign. The findings highlight some of the challenges that China's military modernization and expansion have created for the U.S. military, but they caution against overstating the magnitude of the threat. The findings also support qualified optimism about the future: Encouraging trends in resilience will enable space to remain a major asset rather than a major liability for the U.S. military. But the Chinese military will also benefit from these positive trends in resilience, which will create new challenges for the United States in countering China's use of space to support its own military operations.