Toolset for Assessing the Import Substitution of Economic Systems at Various Hierarchical Levels

The article presents a methodological toolset for assessing import dependence and import substitution of economic systems at various hierarchical levels. A wide range of methods for quantitative assessment of import substitution in economic systems is proposed. It includes the use of the Balassa index to assess the level of import dependence for goods in the country as a whole and by sectors of the national economy; assessing the degree of import dependence in various sectors of industry using the ratio of imports to domestic consumption; calculating the coefficient of import coverage by exports to assess the level of foreign trade security, as well as the coefficient of import coverage by production to assess the level of economic security provided by domestic production. A new author-developed method has been devised for obtaining the dynamic coefficient of import substitution, which is calculated based on changes in the volume of production and import. This coefficient allows for identifying various economic policy scenarios and dividing them into eight zones depending on the coefficient values. Among them, the most favorable scenario of import saving should be identified where a decrease in imports is accompanied by a more significant increase in the level of production. Verification of the proposed tools has shown that the authors’ results can be used in the quantitative assessment of import substitution for economic systems at various hierarchical levels.