Assessment of Options for Using the Eastern Polygon Capacities

The article examines the possibilities of optimizing the industry structure of railway freight transportation in the eastern direction under the limited capacity of the Eastern polygon. The aim of the work is to assess the economic effects of partially replacing coal export shipments with other cargoes. Using the optimization intersectoral interregional model (OIIM-transport), a scenario forecast of economic development up to 2030 is performed for various commodity structures of transportation. Alternative options are compared by the volume of gross output, final consumption, and employment in Russia and in the regional context. The difference between the scenarios with regard to tax revenues to the country’s budget system is also estimated. Calculations show that the optimal option for replacing eight million tons of coal at the Eastern polygon is a combination of grain, non-ferrous metals, and petroleum products. The additional increase in final consumption in 2030 is estimated at 1.2%. The implementation of the optimal option will require state support for some restructuring of the country’s economy.