Using a CGE Model to Update Input–Output Tables Using Data from the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia

Many decisions made in the economies of the CIS countries are not sufficiently supported by calculations, which can lead to serious errors. In this regard, research aimed at increasing the completeness and accuracy of analytical assessments and forecasts can make a significant contribution to improving the quality of economic policy. This paper proposes an algorithm for updating supply and use tables (SUTs)/input–output tables (IOTs) taking into account new known outcomes, such as GDP components. SUT/IOT are the most important tool for analyzing the consistency of macroeconomic statistics data and also serve as the basis for constructing general equilibrium models used to develop effective economic policy. However, SUT/IOT have a large publication delay (in Russia it is 25/37 months after the reporting period, respectively), and are often not updated due to the complexity and high cost of this procedure (for example, in Armenia). At the same time, there is often a need to quickly update data, taking into account newly known results that are published more timely and with higher frequency. Existing table update algorithms, which are various modifications of the RAS method, have a number of shortcomings, including the lack of connection between the resulting tables and the specific structure of the economy, outliers in the data that are not consistent with economic logic, etc. The algorithm proposed in the article is based on a full-fledged CGE—a model with an aggregated external sector, which allows us to take into account not only the numerical relationships in the original table, but also to fully reproduce the economic relationships between all values. Also, the presence of a full-fledged CGE model at the base of the algorithm allows for the introduction of more additional information in the form of structural parameters, price restrictions, etc. The article demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method for extending the SUT/IOT in comparison with the modified RAS method.