SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT: METHODOLOGY, MODELING AND RISKS

The article examines the conceptual foundations of sustainable development, discusses various interpretations of the term “sustainable development” and suggests its scientific interpretation. The main coordinates in the economic, environmental and social spheres in which it is necessary to determine the trajectory of sustainable development are described. The challenges and risks that may lead to the loss of this trajectory of stability have been identified. Among them, the most important role is currently played by the political risks associated with Russia’s confrontation with the West. Economic risks also threaten the loss of stability, in particular, the instability of the ruble exchange rate and the main characteristics of the monetary policy of the state. Demographic risks play an important role, leading to desertification of rural areas and a shortage of labor resources. Social risks are closely related to them, leading to a drop in rural incomes. In the long term, it is impossible not to take into account technological risks, including the massive introduction of robotics and artificial intelligence. Climate change and widespread diseases of cultivated plants and animals can have a decisive impact on sustainable development.