Methodology for Predictive Modeling and Correction Public Transport Times

The article discusses the problem of analyzing and predicting the arrival time of public transport at intermediate and final points of routes. The main requirement is to take into account the traffic congestion of urban road sections at different times of the day. To solve the problem, a methodology and tools for analyzing the movement of vehicles have been developed for predictive assessment of the average speed of movement on sections of the route. The goal is to increase the accuracy of forecasting the arrival time of public transport at stopping points along the routes. The efficiency criterion is the average absolute deviation of the predicted time of arrival of transport at intermediate and final points of routes under current road congestion conditions. The software proposal is designed to predict and adjust the timing of public transport along a route.