PROBLEMS OF PLANNING AND FORECASTING IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INSTABILITY

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the issues of economic planning and forecasting in the context of volatility and bifurcation processes of modern economic development. The relevance of the study is determined by the unprecedented level of turbulence in the global economic environment caused by the convergence of multiple destabilizing factors, which exponentially increases the entropy of economic systems and levels the predictive validity of traditional analytical tools. The purpose of the study is to conceptualize the methodological limitations of conventional forecasting models and to substantiate adaptive planning mechanisms that can function effectively under conditions of fundamental uncertainty. The methodological basis of the article is a systematic approach with the use of comparative analysis, taxonomic classification, structural and functional modeling, and dialectical synthesis, which allows verifying the relationships between different aspects of the problem and formulating holistic conclusions. The article identifies the causal links between global economic shocks and paradigmatic changes in planning methodology, in particular, the processes of transition from linear deterministic to nonlinear stochastic models. The inherent limitations of traditional econometric approaches are systematized in the context of their approximation and predictive ability in the context of structural changes. The relevance of adaptive planning mechanisms, including scenario analysis, agile methodologies, implementation of early warning systems and integrated risk management, which demonstrate increased resistance to volatility, is articulated. A methodology for managing economic risks based on the synthesis of Bayesian networks, agent-based modeling, and stochastic Monte Carlo simulations is proposed, which ensures the formation of probabilistic distributions of potential scenarios. The conceptual foundations for achieving an optimal balance between flexibility and stability in economic planning through a multi-level approach that integrates strategic constancy with tactical adaptability are substantiated. The practical value of the study lies in the development of applied tools for economic entities of various sizes to implement adaptive planning mechanisms in the context of their own operating models, which increases their resilience to exogenous shocks and provides competitive advantages in a turbulent business environment.