The Individual and Combined Effects of Natural–Human Factors on Forest Fire Frequency in Northeast China

The complex interaction between nature and human factors has led to frequent forest fires, but their combined effects in different areas remain unclear. Taking the Northeast China forest as the study area, this study integrates structural equation modeling (SEM) and Vine Copula analysis to quantify these drivers over 2001–2022. Results show that 70.42% of forest fires were caused by humans, clustering in populated low-elevation areas. SEM revealed partial correlations of 0.48 (weather conditions) and 0.59 (human activities) with forest fire frequency; canopy moisture was negatively correlated with fire (−0.38). Vine Copula indicated a joint probability of 0.32 between the human footprint index (HFI) and forest fires under high temperatures. This study can provide a framework for region-specific fire management in temperate forests by combining the effects of various influences.