Forecasting Dynamics of Product Sales to Ensure Timely Provision of Rolling Stock for Coal Plant

The article under consideration addresses the contemporary issue of exporting coal products from Russia's primary coal-mining regions. The research focuses on the logistical challenges associated with the limited availability of rolling stock and decline in its utilization on the “Russian Railways” network. The investigation delves into the underlying causes of the diminished efficiency in wagon utilization, including infrastructural limitations and the augmentation of transport distances. The article employs linear modelling of time series to project coal product transportation for enterprises. The analysis of the forecasts indicates a potential reduction in the demand for rolling stock by 57%, a significant departure from previous periods. The correlation between the penalties for excessive downtime and the number of rolling stock units supplied indicates that operators with moratorium on excessive downtime are preferable.