Probabilistic Analysis of Power System Performance Under High PV and EV Penetration

This paper investigates the impact of high penetration levels of photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric vehicle charging stations (EVCS) on the operational efficiency of modern distribution grids. A probabilistic modeling framework is developed to address the uncertainties associated with PV generation, driven by weather variability, and EV charging demands, influenced by stochastic user behaviors. Using a modified version of the IEEE 123-bus system, various scenarios with different levels of PV and EVCS penetration are analyzed to evaluate their effects on voltage, power losses, and system reliability. Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate samples, while each sample realization is solved using an unbalanced voltage, var, and watt optimization (VVWO) model. Results demonstrate that coordination between PV and EVCS operations can mitigate the challenges posed by fluctuating renewable generation and increased EV demand. High PV penetration is shown to reduce power losses, support voltage stability, and minimize EVCS demand curtailment. The findings emphasize the importance of coordinated PV and EVCS management and offer insights for grid planners to enhance the hosting capacity of distribution networks.