The Application of the Probabilistic Analysis Method in the Design of Complex Technical Systems

In this paper, the algorithm of the probabilistic analysis method intended for modeling the determining parameter of complex technical systems with metrological support is presented. The algorithm is based on the application of the maximum entropy principle for the problem of constructing the distribution law of the determining parameter (random variable) of a complex technical system in the presence of restrictions on the value and nature of its change. The developed algorithm is applied repeatedly. As additional information is received, for example, after the next test cycle, it may be necessary to update the parameters of the restrictions used or introduce new restrictions. In this case, taking into account the new set of restrictions, a refined probability distribution function is constructed. The desired distribution laws can be constructed based on the solution of a boundary value problem for nonlinear differential equations of the second order.