Research on Reliability Prediction Method Based on the Fusion of Mathematical Statistics and Failure Physics

A reliability prediction method combining mathematical statistics and failure physics is proposed to address issues such as poor implementation and unsatisfactory results in reliability prediction. The failure rate of non critical parts is obtained through a manual based reliability prediction method, and the life of critical parts is obtained through a failure physics based reliability evaluation method. The life is converted into a failure rate, and the two analysis methods are combined to obtain the predicted results. This method is applied to the failure rate analysis of a certain type of circuit board. The reliability prediction result based on the manual is 56.2 × 10<sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">-6</sup>/h, the reliability prediction life based on failure physics is 67322 h, and the equivalent failure rate is 10.3 × 10<sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">-6</sup>/h. By integrating the results of the two methods, the failure rate of the circuit board is obtained as 66.5 × 10<sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">-6</sup>/h. The results indicate that this method can improve the accuracy of prediction results and identify weak links in product design, effectively guiding product design improvement.