Climate Change, Vulnerability, and the Propensity for Climate Migration: Evidence from Guatemala

Abstract As extreme weather events, including floods, heat waves, droughts, and wildfires, have increased in frequency and severity, climate migration has also become more commonplace. However, few studies exist proposing climate vulnerability as a principal cause of out-migration. Utilizing an author-directed 2023 national survey in Guatemala, one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations suffering from both drought and flood, we provide robust empirical evidence that climate vulnerability impacts respondents’ propensity for migration. Our results show that while experiencing economic difficulties or lacking effective government responses fails to explain individuals’ inclinations to migrate, firsthand experience with climate vulnerability does predict respondent intentions to migrate. We argue that experience with extreme weather events serves as an intervening variable between economic adversity and migration. We conclude that greater consideration must be given to climate vulnerability and adaptation policies, as opposed to economic hardship, which has traditionally been viewed as the key driver of migration.