The Projected Effects of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Planococcus minor Based on Ensemble Species Distribution Models

Planococcus minor is an invasive pest of significant economic importance that has attracted international attention. Predicting the potential geographic distribution of P. minor under climate change is crucial to developing effective prevention and control strategies for safeguarding agricultural productivity. In this study, we selected four species distribution models (GBM, GLM, MARS, MAXENT) and utilized the Biomod2 package to construct an ensemble model for predicting the suitable habitats of P. minor under the averaged climate conditions of 1970–2000 and 2041–2060 (2050s), including a low-emission pathway (SSP1-2.6) and a high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5). Among the 19 bioclimatic variables considered, precipitation of the wettest quarter and temperature seasonality were identified as the most influential factors affecting the distribution of P. minor. Under the averaged climate conditions of 1970–2000, suitable habitats for P. minor are mainly distributed in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. In China, highly suitable zones are concentrated in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and Taiwan. In the future, the global range of P. minor is projected to expand, with some highly suitable areas transitioning toward medium and low suitability. Under the high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5) scenario, suitable habitats in China are anticipated to exhibit a pronounced trend of inland expansion. Establishing an ensemble model to predict the potential geographic distribution of P. minor will facilitate the assessment of invasion and spread risks, thereby providing a scientific foundation for developing targeted prevention and monitoring strategies for relevant regions.