“Calculated” risk-taking: the choice of risky locations in organized sexual homicide

Purpose This study aims to examine the factors related to offender risk-taking in sexual homicide (SH). More specifically, this paper explores whether the crime-commission process of organized SH is associated with low-risk offending, operationalized as the frequency of selecting crime locations with the risk of witness detection. Design/methodology/approach The sample for this study consists of 350 cases of SH in Canada between 1948 and 2010. Bivariate analyses were used to identify significant differences between low-risk (n = 250) and high-risk (n = 100) offending across the independent variables. Moreover, logistic regression was used to determine under what conditions an organized crime-commission process is associated with low-risk offending. Findings The bivariate analyses indicate that many variables related to an organized crime-commission process were significantly associated with high-risk offending. Similarly, the logistic regression analyses demonstrated that behaviours linked to an offender’s sexual goals or fantasies (e.g. specific victim targeting, engaging in sexual intercourse with the victim, biting and leaving biological evidence) were associated with decreased odds of low-risk offending. In contrast, more opportunistic behaviours (e.g. selecting sex-trade workers and engaging in overkill) were associated with increased odds that the offender engaged in low-risk offending. Originality/value This study takes a unique approach to examining risk-taking in SH based on offenders’ selection of risky crime locations. It opens avenues for future research to explore different thresholds for risky offending behaviour and the decision-making that manifests in low- and high-risk crime-commission processes.