System Dynamics Simulation for Schedule Risk Management in Chinese Medicine Industrial Parks

The importance of the construction of Chinese medicine industrial parks has been increasing as China has increased its support for the cause of Chinese medicine. As an important carrier, the progress construction of the Chinese medicine industrial park is a dynamic system that continues to evolve and contains complex risk factors. To dynamically and quantitatively study the schedule risk management factors in the construction of the TCM industrial park, the paper constructs a system dynamics model of schedule risk management in the construction of the TCM industrial park. It adopts hierarchical analysis to quantify the risk, and at the same time combines with the case to carry out the dynamic simulation analysis of system dynamics. It is found that: ① different schedule risk factors have different impacts on the project schedule, and the impact paths of other factors have special characteristics; ② untimely capital investment, unreasonable schedule requirements, and low qualification level of contractor's ability are the main influencing factors; ③ the impacts of exogenous risk influencing factors on the schedule risk of TCM industrial park are weaker than the project's controlling ability.