Market sales forecast of PHEV based on ARIMA and XGBoost combined model

PHEV vehicles have the advantages of both traditional fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles, and are currently showing rapid growth around the world. However, the development of the PHEV market is not only affected by key factors such as technology maturity and policy orientation, but also faces the challenge of multiple uncertainties such as increasingly fierce market competition, the impact of new technologies and changes in consumer demand. Accurately predicting the market sales of PHEV is of extremely critical and important value for the future product planning and layout of enterprises and for policymakers to make scientific decisions. In this study, PHEV monthly sales data from 2012 to June 2024 were decomposed into trend components, seasonal components and random components. The ARIMA model is established for seasonal components and random components, and the XGBoost model is established for trend components. Based on this, the two models are combined to form a combination model, and the monthly market sales of PHEV from July 2024 to June 2025 are predicted. The prediction error is small, and the development trend of PHEV market can be accurately predicted. It has good application and guiding significance in practice.