Is the symbiotic recurrent nova T CrB late? Recent photometric evolution and comparison with past pre-outburst behaviour

ABSTRACT T CrB is a symbiotic recurrent nova that last erupted in 1946. Given its recurrence time-scale of approximately 80 yr, the next outburst is eagerly anticipated by the astronomical community. In this work, we analyse the optical light curves of T CrB, comparing recent photometric evolution with historical data to evaluate potential predictive indicators of nova eruptions. Although the ‘superactive’ phases preceding both the 1946 and anticipated eruptions are strikingly similar, the subsequent photometric behaviour differs. We find that the decline in brightness observed in 2023, interpreted by some as a ‘pre-eruption dip’, deviates from the deep minimum recorded prior to the 1946 event and does not reliably predict the eruption timing. Recent photometric and spectroscopic observations indicate that the system is returning to a high-accretion state. Given this, an eruption may be imminent, even without distinct precursors. While the next eruption of T CrB will be a major scientific event, its expected peak brightness of $V \sim 2$ mag highlights the importance of setting realistic public expectations for what will be a visually modest, yet astrophysically very significant, celestial event.

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Publication Details

Journal
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Letters
Published
2025-05-10
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1093/mnrasl/slaf047
Citations
6
Primary Topic
Gamma-ray bursts and supernovae
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
6.93

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article

Is the symbiotic recurrent nova T CrB late? Recent photometric evolution and comparison with past pre-outburst behaviour

D. Moździerski, Charles Galdies, M. Bronikowski, Ł. Wyrzykowski et al.
6 citations
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Letters
Gamma-ray bursts and supernovae
6.93
article

Is the symbiotic recurrent nova T CrB late? Recent photometric evolution and comparison with past pre-outburst behaviour

D. Moździerski, Charles Galdies, M. Bronikowski, Ł. Wyrzykowski, S. Zoła, Barbara Gil, M. Dróżdż, S. Vanaverbeke, Mateusz Marek Marzec, Jaroslav Merc, Aneta Aniela Kowalska, M. Stojanović, A. Liakos, Adam Popowicz, A. Gurgul, Sebastian Kurowski, Mohor Mihelčič, Krzysztof Kotysz, A. Reguitti, Uliana Pylypenko, Franz-Josef Hambsch, J. K. T. Qvam, W. Ogłoza, Franky Dubois, J. M. Carrasco, M. Dennefeld, T. Kvernadze, Supachai Awiphan, K. Szyszka, M. Maskoliūnas, K. Bąkowska, P. G. Beck, K. Gazeas, J. Golonka, J. Zdanavičius, E. Pakštienė, Stephen M. Brincat, P. Mikołajczyk, U. Burgaz, B. Joachimczyk, J. M. Olszewska, G. Damljanović, Vytautas Čepas, Jure Japelj, Piotr Hofbauer, Magdalena Badura, Alicja Pucek, Mateusz Szklarz, PawełZieliński
article en
6 citations

Abstract

ABSTRACT T CrB is a symbiotic recurrent nova that last erupted in 1946. Given its recurrence time-scale of approximately 80 yr, the next outburst is eagerly anticipated by the astronomical community. In this work, we analyse the optical light curves of T CrB, comparing recent photometric evolution with historical data to evaluate potential predictive indicators of nova eruptions. Although the ‘superactive’ phases preceding both the 1946 and anticipated eruptions are strikingly similar, the subsequent photometric behaviour differs. We find that the decline in brightness observed in 2023, interpreted by some as a ‘pre-eruption dip’, deviates from the deep minimum recorded prior to the 1946 event and does not reliably predict the eruption timing. Recent photometric and spectroscopic observations indicate that the system is returning to a high-accretion state. Given this, an eruption may be imminent, even without distinct precursors. While the next eruption of T CrB will be a major scientific event, its expected peak brightness of $V \sim 2$ mag highlights the importance of setting realistic public expectations for what will be a visually modest, yet astrophysically very significant, celestial event.

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society LettersVol. 541(1)
Silesian University of Technology (PL), Jagiellonian University (PL), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Universidad de La Laguna (ES), Vilnius University (LT), University of Nova Gorica (SI), University of Malta (MT), National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (GR), Trinity College (CA), Trinity College Dublin (IE), University of Wrocław (PL), Institut d'Astrophysique de Paris (FR), Brera Astronomical Observatory (IT), Evgeni Kharadze Georgian National Astrophysical Observatory (GE), Nicolaus Copernicus University (PL), Sorbonne Université (FR), Institut d'Estudis Espacials de Catalunya (ES), National Centre for Nuclear Research (PL), Bundesdeutsche Arbeitsgemeinschaft für Veränderliche Sterne (DE), National Observatory of Athens (GR), Institute of Astronomy (RU), Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias (ES), Astronomical Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (SK), Horten Kommune (NO), Astronomical Observatory (RS), Osservatorio Astronomico di Padova (IT), Stichting tot Steun VCVGZ (NL), University of Warsaw (PL), Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań (PL), Universitat de Barcelona (ES), National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand (TH), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (ES)
National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand, European Space Agency, European Commission, Grantová Agentura České Republiky, Javna Agencija za Raziskovalno Dejavnost RS, Lietuvos Mokslo Taryba, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Universitat de Barcelona, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika w Toruniu, Thailand Science Research and Innovation, HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme, European Regional Development Fund, Agencia Estatal de Investigación, Institut de Ciències del Cosmos, Integrated Electronics Engineering Center, Binghamton University, FP7 Research Potential of Convergence Regions
Openalex Percentile: Top 3%
Gamma-ray bursts and supernovae
6.93
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