"Impact of Structural Transport Carbon Emission Reduction Policy from the Perspective of modal shift from road to railway Comprehensive Evaluation - Based on Causal Forest and Full Fuel Cycle Analysis"

Based on the realistic background of accelerating the adjustment and optimisation of the transport structure, promoting the green and low-carbon development of transport, and building a strong transport nation, this paper evaluates the effects of the ‘modal shift from road to railway’ policy four years after its implementation. By constructing the direct cost effect, congestion relief effect, transport safety effect and environment optimisation effect, this paper further depicts the effect of the ‘modal shift from road to railway’ policy using quantitative methods. The results show that the implementation of the ‘modal shift from road to railway’ policy saves freight transport costs, and the effects are heterogeneous across regions with different economic levels. At the same time, the implementation of the policy eases the pressure of road transport, improves the level of traffic safety, and has the effect of energy saving and emission reduction. The findings of this paper can provide empirical recommendations for the implementation of the "modal shift from road to railway" policy, as well as empirical references for the evaluation of the social effects of ‘modal shift from road to waterway’, multimodal transport and other similar major policies, and provide practical examples for developing countries to promote the transformation of freight transport modes through policy guidance.