Analysis of trade volume and economic impact of countries along the Belt and Road with multidimensional indicators

In the context of globalization, the Belt and Road Initiative, as an important platform to promote international economic cooperation, has a significant impact on the trade growth and economic growth of participating countries. This study first integrated, cleaned and analyzed multi-region and multi-type data, deleted duplicate data, and supplemented the missing data by interpolation and time shift prediction. The SPSSPRO platform is used to encode and classify regions, countries, indices, time, etc., and then a multi-level analysis method is adopted. First, at the macro level, the Auto Regressive Integrate Moving Average Model is adopted to observe the changing trend of the overall trade activities by using the maritime Silk Road trade index and the shipping trade index. Second, a more detailed analysis is made on the specific data of import and export trade volume and GDP, and a strong positive correlation is obtained by correlation analysis. The differences before and after the Belt and Road Initiative are classified according to the T-test of paired samples. According to the macro upward trend and the difference analysis, the contribution of the "Belt and Road" initiative to economic growth is obtained, and the reasons are analyzed.

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Publication Details

Published
2024-12-13
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1145/3724154.3724313
Primary Topic
Global Trade and Competitiveness
Type
article
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Analysis of trade volume and economic impact of countries along the Belt and Road with multidimensional indicators

Hongli Deng, Yangkun Liu, Jingjing Wang
Global Trade and Competitiveness
article

Analysis of trade volume and economic impact of countries along the Belt and Road with multidimensional indicators

Hongli Deng, Yangkun Liu, Jingjing Wang
article en

Abstract

In the context of globalization, the Belt and Road Initiative, as an important platform to promote international economic cooperation, has a significant impact on the trade growth and economic growth of participating countries. This study first integrated, cleaned and analyzed multi-region and multi-type data, deleted duplicate data, and supplemented the missing data by interpolation and time shift prediction. The SPSSPRO platform is used to encode and classify regions, countries, indices, time, etc., and then a multi-level analysis method is adopted. First, at the macro level, the Auto Regressive Integrate Moving Average Model is adopted to observe the changing trend of the overall trade activities by using the maritime Silk Road trade index and the shipping trade index. Second, a more detailed analysis is made on the specific data of import and export trade volume and GDP, and a strong positive correlation is obtained by correlation analysis. The differences before and after the Belt and Road Initiative are classified according to the T-test of paired samples. According to the macro upward trend and the difference analysis, the contribution of the "Belt and Road" initiative to economic growth is obtained, and the reasons are analyzed.

Jiangxi Science and Technology Normal University (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 49%
Global Trade and Competitiveness
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Analysis of trade volume and economic impact of countries along the Belt and Road with multidimensional indicators — Hongli Deng, Yangkun Liu, et al. · (2024) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS