Hybrid threats in the Baltic Sea. The results of analysis of countermeasure options

The maritime areas of the Baltic region, can be considered a space for the conduct of proxy conflict, i.e. of a substitute nature, between the Russian Federation and Western states. Intensifying since 2022 (the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine) hybrid actions on the part of Russia have largely targeted the critical infrastructure facilities of coastal states. The article discusses the various forms of subliminal actions against this infrastructure undertaken by Russia, based on available information on events in the period from 2022 to the end of 2024. It also presents the vulnerabilities to hybrid actions that characterise critical infrastructure in the Baltic (possible ways of affecting port facilities and offshore infrastructure, with a particular focus on undersea transmission lines). The publication also presents the author’s views on possible responses from NATO countries, in the form of political, military and technological initiatives, to hybrid threats posed by modern maritime autonomous systems.