Monitoring mangrove dynamics and evaluating future afforestation potential in the Egyptian Red Sea

Mangrove forests are vital for ecosystem services and coastal management but face stressors from anthropogenic activities and climate change. This study estimates the extent and afforestation potential of mangroves along the Egyptian Red Sea coast from 1984 to 2022 using NDVI derived from Landsat-5 and Sentinel-2 data in Google Earth Engine. Aboveground biomass (AGB), belowground biomass (BGB), carbon (C) stock, and CO 2 sequestration potential were evaluated using Sentinel-2 and elevation data. Future afforestation suitability (2020–2050) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios was assessed with the MaxEnt model. Mangrove area increased from 0.95 km 2 in 1984 to 1.46 km 2 in 2022, with Landsat-5 classification accuracy between 89–94% and Sentinel-2 at 92–96%. Mean AGB and BGB were 63.48 Mg/ha and 18.41 Mg/ha, while mean C stock and CO 2 sequestration were 40.94 Mg/ha and 150.25 Mg/ha, respectively, below global averages. Under SSP2-4.5, 18.60 km 2 and 21.40 km 2 were identified as highly and moderately suitable for afforestation, decreasing to 12.34 km 2 and 12.50 km 2 under SSP5-8.5. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, high-suitability areas for mangroves would be predominantly located along the northern coast, with fewer areas identified along the southern coast. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, high-suitability areas are expected to shift and concentrate only in the northern regions. Significant predictors under SSP2-4.5 included sea water velocity, bathymetry, and air temperature, while SSP5-8.5 highlighted bathymetry, sea surface temperature, and salinity. This study provides insights into mangrove dynamics, biomass potential, and afforestation opportunities, offering critical guidance for conservation and restoration strategies. • Mangrove extent expanded from 0.95 km 2 in 1984 to 1.46 km 2 in 2022 along the Red Sea coast. • Mean AGB and BGB were 102.78 Mg/ha and 29.81 Mg/ha, respectively, with CO2 at 243.29 Mg/ha. • Afforestation suitability under SSP2-4.5 covers 18.60 km 2 vs. 12.34 km 2 in SSP5-8.5 scenario. • Key factors for afforestation: SWV, bathymetry, and air temperature under SSP2-4.5 conditions.