Future climate projections in the global coastal ocean

• We propose a Global Coastal Ocean Climate Model Intercomparison Project (GCO-MIP). • We explore the modelling challenges of coastal ocean climate downscaling. • Motivated by societal drivers e.g. ecosystems, coastal hazards and marine economy. • Downscaling crosses scales from global to regional to subregional and local. Resilient coastal communities and sustainable marine economies require actionable knowledge to plan for and adapt to emerging and potential future climate change, particularly in relation to ecosystem services and coastal hazards. Such knowledge necessarily draws heavily on coastal ocean modelling of future climate impacts, using a great diversity of both global and regional approaches to explore multiple societal challenges in coastal and shelf seas around the world. In this paper, we explore the challenges, solutions and benefits of developing a better coordinated and global approach to future climate impacts modelling of the coastal ocean, in the context of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development project Future Coastal Ocean Climates (FLAME; part of the CoastPredict programme). Particularly, we address the need for diverse modelling approaches to meet different societal challenges, how regions can be harmonised through clustering and typology approaches, and how coordination of experimental designs can promote a better understanding of uncertainties and regional responses. Improved harmonisation of future climate impact projections in the global coastal ocean would allow sectoral and cross-sectoral global scale risk assessments, improve process understanding and help build capacity in under-represented areas such as the global south and small island developing states. We conclude with a proposed framework for a Global Coastal Ocean Model Intercomparison Project.

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Publication Details

Journal
Progress In Oceanography
Published
2025-05-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103497
Citations
5
Primary Topic
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
8.97
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article

Future climate projections in the global coastal ocean

Mairéad O’Donovan, Jérôme Aucan, Bahareh Kamranzad, Christian M. Appendini et al.
5 citations
Progress In Oceanography
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
8.97
article

Future climate projections in the global coastal ocean

Mairéad O’Donovan, Jérôme Aucan, Bahareh Kamranzad, Christian M. Appendini, Andrea Lira‐Loarca, Jodie A. Schlaefer, Agnieszka I. Olbert, Jason Holt, Xiaoyan Wei, Paul G. Myers, Clothilde Langlais, Joanne E. Hopkins, Michela De Dominicis, Peter Robins, Lars Arneborg, Andrea Ruju, Alfonso Senatore, Yuri Artioli, Matthew D. Palmer, Laura Cagigal, Moritz Mathis, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Jonathan Tinker, Anna Katavouta, Giovanni Galli, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Jeff A. Polton, Sanne Muis, Laurent O. Amoudry, Nadia Pinardi, Charlotte Lyddon, Giorgia Verri, Ivica Vilibić, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Angélique Melet, Fernando J. Méndez, Samantha Siedlecki, Lachlan Phillips, Barbara Berx, Cléa Denamiel, Jennifer Graham, Zoe Jacobs, Alex Arnold
article en
5 citations

Abstract

• We propose a Global Coastal Ocean Climate Model Intercomparison Project (GCO-MIP). • We explore the modelling challenges of coastal ocean climate downscaling. • Motivated by societal drivers e.g. ecosystems, coastal hazards and marine economy. • Downscaling crosses scales from global to regional to subregional and local. Resilient coastal communities and sustainable marine economies require actionable knowledge to plan for and adapt to emerging and potential future climate change, particularly in relation to ecosystem services and coastal hazards. Such knowledge necessarily draws heavily on coastal ocean modelling of future climate impacts, using a great diversity of both global and regional approaches to explore multiple societal challenges in coastal and shelf seas around the world. In this paper, we explore the challenges, solutions and benefits of developing a better coordinated and global approach to future climate impacts modelling of the coastal ocean, in the context of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development project Future Coastal Ocean Climates (FLAME; part of the CoastPredict programme). Particularly, we address the need for diverse modelling approaches to meet different societal challenges, how regions can be harmonised through clustering and typology approaches, and how coordination of experimental designs can promote a better understanding of uncertainties and regional responses. Improved harmonisation of future climate impact projections in the global coastal ocean would allow sectoral and cross-sectoral global scale risk assessments, improve process understanding and help build capacity in under-represented areas such as the global south and small island developing states. We conclude with a proposed framework for a Global Coastal Ocean Model Intercomparison Project.

Progress In OceanographyVol. 235
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU), Met Office (GB), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SE), Universidad de Cantabria (ES), Pacific Community (NC), Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (GB), University of Strathclyde (GB), National Oceanography Centre (GB), Scottish Government (GB), Plymouth Marine Laboratory (GB), Danish Meteorological Institute (DK), Ruđer Bošković Institute (HR), Institute for Adriatic Crops and Karst Reclamation (HR), National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics (IT), Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (MX)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 2%
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
8.97
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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